Revenue Journal: Management and Entrepreneurship, vol. 1 (2), pp. 90-98, 2024
Received 15 August 2023 / published 30 Feb 2024
https://doi.org/10.61650/rjme.v1i1.176

Analysis of the relationship between
some indicators of sustainable
development and economic growth in
Iraq for the period (2004-2020)
Khalid Rokan Awad1,*, Sami Hamed Abbas2, and Muhannad Khalifa Obed3
1University of Fallujah, Iraq
*Corresponding author: ritz.nand@gmail.com

KEYWORDS
Gross Domestic Product
Spending on Education
Spending on Health
Unemployment

ABSTRACT The research aims to analyze the relationship between some indicators of
sustainable development and economic growth, as well as determine the extent of the
impact of sustainable development indicators on the economic growth indicator
represented by the gross domestic product in Iraq, through the use of time series to express
the nature of the relationship between the variables of the study, and through estimation
and analysis Relationship In the applied side in which the ARDL model was used, it was
found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between some indicators of
sustainable development and economic growth in Iraq, in addition to that indicator of
sustainable development have an impact on economic growth in Iraq. The study means
that sustainable development has contributed in one way or another to achieving
economic growth in Iraq.
© The Author(s) 2023

1. INTRODUCTION
Sustainable development is a modern topic that has
re- received wide attention at the global level,
especially after the world’s access to modern
technologies. (B. Liu et al., 2023; Q. Liu et al., 2024;
Solaymani & Montes, 2023) The concept of
sustainable development is a sophisticated concept
of old or former development concepts. It
considered that the contribution of human capital
investment to economic growth was no less
important than investing in physical capital and that
increasing GDP was a measure of economic growth,
focusing on members of society benefiting from the
fruits of economic growth more equitably. (Abdi et
al., 2022; Baajike et al., 2022; Kindo et al., 2024) It
is a state of continuous interaction between human
beings and society and between human beings and
nature, as human capacity development must be
used in the process of economic growth to achieve
economic benefits that increase the possibility of

further sustainable development as one of the States
seeking to achieve steps on this path, Iraq faced
many problems and obstacles related to the realities
of the Iraqi economy due to the surrounding
circumstances, which engulfed Iraq after 2003 and
resulted in military operations and United States
occupation, and many subsequent incidents and
crises that prevented it from continuing its
sustainable development approach (Deng et al., 2023;
Solaymani & Montes, 2023; Yu et al., 2023a). These
conditions had a direct impact on Iraq’s sustainable
development indicators In addition to depleting its
resources, the process of sustainable development
requires a multiplier development effort by decisionmakers through the diversification of Iraq's economy
and the failure to rely on a single sector to obtain its
base through which to embark on a meaningful plan
of action through which to achieve the desired goals
for achieving sustainable development (Ahmed &
Kumalasari, 2023; Anisur Rahman, 2023; Baajike et al.,
2022; Luukkanen et al., 2019; Yu et al., 2023b).
25

2. METHOD
The inductive and deductive Approaches to
studying and analyzing the Impact of economic
growth on certain indicators of sustainable
development during the Duration of the Study, as
well as the applied method based on the economic
measure- are meant to determine the results of
the relationship between study variables.

2.1. Research Structure

The research was divided into three topics. The first
topic was devoted to the study of the theoretical and
conceptual aspects of sustainable development and
economic growth. (Deng et al., 2023; Li et al., 2011;
L. Wang, 2011) The second focus was on the
development of economic growth and the analysis
of some indicators of Iraq's sustainable
development during the period of the study and
knowledge of the relationship between them. The
third focus was on measuring and analyzing the
impact of some indicators of sustainable
development on Iraq's economic growth. The
research concluded with several conclusions and
recommendations.

2.2. Research Problem

The Iraqi economy faces many problems, including
the
irrational
use
of
natural
resources,
environmental pollution, desertification, low per
capita GDP and water, as well as increased openness
to the outside world, which directly affects natural
resources and their depletion, all of which hurt
economic growth. (Deng et al., 2023; Lian, 2024)
The problem can therefore be formulated in
response to the following questions: To what extent
have sustainable development?

3.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for
sustainable
growth

development

and

economic

Economic growth is one of the prerequisites for
improving communities' living standards s gross
domestic product (GDP) is not only an increase in
real per capita income, This increase must be
greater than the rate of population growth and be
cumulative and sustained over time, while
sustainable development indicates the need to
conserve and not drain natural resources through
sufficiency. (Buranasiri et al., 2024; Jothr et al.,
2023; C. Wang et al., 2024) Through this pillar, we
will address economic growth and sustainable
development through the following:

3.1.1. The Concept of Sustainable Development
Sustainable development is one of the topics the
world has taken on in the economic, social, and
political arena. If sustainability becomes a
26

developmental idea, it is spreading in many
developing and developed countries alike, so
sustainability is not a topic of the day. It is based on
a series of reforms that have evolved as a result of
inadequate concepts of past development. (Javier
Lacárcel et al., 2023; Jha & Rangarajan, 2020; Leal et al.,
2024) Many concepts of sustainable development
have been identified by the economist Robert Solo as
not harming the productive capacity of future
generations and bringing them to the same position
as the current generation. This speech on
sustainability means not only the resources we
consume at present and those we inherit for future
generations, but also the environment must be taken
care of. This environment includes the total
productive capacity of the economy (Maher and
Ahmad, 2017; (Maulana et al., 2022)).
It can be said that sustainable development can be
considered as the means of human beings. It seeks to
ensure a balance between environmental aspects
through its various and diverse dimensions to ensure
the rational development of both natural and human
resources by its planned strategy collectively and
organizationally to reconcile the needs of the present
and the future (Abed et al., 2022; Olojede et al., 2020;
Ruban & Rydén, 2019; W. Wang et al., 2023; Zhi & Kang,
2021). Some define it as a dynamic balance in the
process of interaction between the population and
the absorptive capacity of their environment so that
people develop to express their potential without
adversely affecting the absorptive capacity of the
environment (Ben, 2015). This concept indicates
that sustainability focuses on human activities and
their ability to meet the needs of individuals without
draining the productive resources at their disposal.
(Beske-Janssen et al., 2023; Jothr et al., 2023)
Sustainable development is also known as
development, which encompasses the various
activities of society, by adopting the best means to
achieve the best investment of material and human
resources in development activities, focusing on the
principles of equity in production and consumption
and in the distribution of returns, to achieve the wellbeing of all members of society without damaging
the environment or the allocations of future
generations (Al-Qureshi, 2010; Maulana et al., 2022).
The FAO Council defines sustainable development as
managing and protecting the natural resource base
and guiding technical and institutional change in a
way that ensures continuous satisfaction of human
needs for the present and future generations
(Jawarain, 2017) This concept in- dictates that
sustainable development is the management and
maintenance of the resource base and the
direction of technological and institutional changes
in a way that ensures that current and future human
needs are met continuously. (Baajike et al., 2022;
Dmuchowski et al., 2023; Raluca Gh. Popescu &
Popescu, 2019) To complement the foregoing,
Awad et al / Analysis of the relationship between

sustainable development aims at conserving and
not draining natural resources through sufficiency,
improving the well-being of society by meeting
their needs and achieving balance while the present
generation and future generations need it.

3.1.2. The Importance of Sustainable Development
The importance of sustainable development comes
from the following: (Hashim, 2011; (B. Liu et al.,
2023; Q. Liu et al., 2024)
1. The need to preserve and sustain nonrenewable natural resources is an important
topic, whether in the field of thought or politics.
The concept of sustainability has therefore been
incorporated into the concept of human
development.
2. Reducing pollution and ensuring a better life for
generations. Productive expansion, particularly
industrial activities in developed countries, has
led to higher demand for natural resources and
higher pollutants.
3. Improving the cultural, social, economic, and
health levels of society.
4. Solving
the
problems
caused
by
underdevelopment creates new jobs for
individuals and society and develops their
abilities to work, think, innovate, novate, and
innovate.
5. Developing the use of renewable energy
materials.

3.1.3. Characteristics
development

of

sustainable

Sustainable development enjoys continuity and
communication and therefore has a range of features
and characteristics: (Abu Qasr and Jasmine, 2017;
Darmayanti et al., 1990; Jothr et al., 2023; Khalaf &
Hamad, 2023).
1. It is its long-term development and this is
one of the most important features of it, taking
the time dimension as the basis for it. It is a
development that depends on an appreciation
of the possibilities of the present.
2. while taking into account the rights of future
generations.
3. The elements of sustainable development
cannot be separated from each other as a result
of the overlapping quantitative and qualitative
dimensions of these elements.
4. It is a multidimensional and interdependent
process based on planning and coordination
between economic and social development
plans on the one hand and environmental
development on the other.
5. Taking into account equality and the rights of
subsequent generations and balancing the
ecological, economic, and social systems.
6. It is an integrated development based on policy
coordination and integration.
7. Sustainable
development
differs
from
development in general because it is
REVENUE JOURNAL: MANAGEMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP 1(1): 25-32

characterized by overlap and particular
complexity about the natural and social nature of
development.
8. Continuing to generate high income that can be
reinvested and then perform replacement,
replenishment, and maintenance of resources.
The need to preserve and sustain non-renewable
natural resources is an important topic, whether
in the field of thought or politics. The concept of
sustainability has therefore been incorporated
into the concept of human development.

3.1.4. The concept of economic growth
The concepts of economic growth vary because of
different researchers and intellectuals, as well as the
different intellectual bases on which such concepts
are based. (Awad et al., 2023; Baajike et al., 2022;
Raihan et al., 2023) The defini- tions put forward by
the competent writers are many but all of them are in
the same sense. In this context, we mention some
definitions that touch on economic growth.
Economic growth can be defined as an increase in per
capita or labor volume because the increase in
output is often accompanied by an increase in
population size. (Iqbal Syam, n.d.; Raihan et al., 2023)
Therefore, the real estimate of the meaning of
prosperity is measured by the average per capita GDP
(Awad Et al., 2021) this concept, economic growth
means a sustained increase in real per capita income
over time and is limited to the per capita income
divided by the population.
It is also defined as increasing the economy's ability
to expand the production of goods and services over
some time compared to another period and can be
measured in nominal terms, including inflation, or
measured in real terms that do not include inflation
(Dagher, 2018)
While who refers to economic growth as the impact
of sustained increases in the production of material
wealth, technical progress and efficiency of
economic systems, as well as investment in capital
and human beings, are the main sources of
economic growth, because technical progress means
the use of new technical methods through innovation
and invention as well as the risk element of proproductive enterprises. (Barnes et al., n.d.; Deng et al.,
2023; Lian, 2024) Economic systems show their
efficiency by transferring resources to areas that
achieve economies of scale and optimal production
status, while the capital material and human capital
positively affect the worker's productivity and
manpower development in terms of training and
qualification to the extent that increases the
proportion of economically active forces (Awad Et al.,
2020).
This concept means that economic growth represents
the State’s ability to offer a diverse mix of economic
27

goods to its population. This growing increase in
productive- capacity is based on technological
progress and institutional and ideological
adjustments.(Encinas-Ferrer & Villegas-Zermeño,
2015a; L. Wang, 2011; Yu et al., 2023b)

land, buildings, physical assets, and other
elements that are involved in the productive
process. The financing of this element is done
through savings that go to invest. Increasing
savings leads to increased investment and thus
increased production and income, thereby
increasing the capacity for capital formation.

3.1.5. Importance of Economic Growth
Economic growth is the reflection of economic
activity and the proportion of its development. It is
of interest to economists and shows its importance
as a general indicator reflecting the current
economic situation. The high level of income (15%)
leads to a reduction in the poverty rate by 20-30%.
The importance of economic growth can be
represented by the following: (Kafi, 2014).
1. Economic growth raises the standard of living,
creates jobs, and reduces unemployment,
thereby reducing poverty.
2. Endeavors to improve the health, education,
and social standards of members of society.
3. Supporting the balance of payments through
the development of economic plans that
contribute to implementing and achieving
economic stability and contributing to
domestic income growth.
4. Providing all basic needs, especially food, at
affordable prices commensurate with society's
economic capacity. This helps to improve their
living conditions.
5. Economic growth contributes to increased
income and provides significant assistance to
several State institutions in the form that
ultimately leads them to self-sufficiency.
6. Supporting important sectors of the State to
increase the level of services provided to
citizens.

3.1.6. Elements of Economic Growth
Many elements contribute to economic growth, the
most important of which can be represented by the
following: (Awad Et al., 2020)
1. Technological
advances:
technological
advances in the use of modern technologies in
the production process, which contribute to the
production of more quantities and are of higher
quality and less time, by using the same amount
of production elements or less, i.e. optimal
exploitation of the production elements.
2. Work: This element is an influential factor in
the production process, as it represents the
physical and intellectual abilities that human
beings can use in the production process. The
size of the labor force is linked to the number
of active people ready and able to work and to
the working hours of each worker. As is
known, the increase in the population
contributes to the increase in the volume of
employment.
3. Capital: This component consists of machinery,
28

3.2.

Development of economic growth and analysis

Development of economic growth and analysis of
some dictators of Iraq's sustainable development
for the period (2004-2020).

3.2.1. The reality of Iraq’s economic growth after
(2004)
National income and gross domestic product
(GDP) are among the most important indicators of
economic growth for most countries and Iraq.
National income represents the total income earned
by factors of production in return for their
contribution to the production process of goods and
services produced within the national economy over
a period that typically represents a year. While GDP
indicates the total gross added values achieved by
different branches of economic activity over a given
period, that is, it represents the total market values
of all final goods and services produced in the
national economy over a certain period, often a year
(Abbas, 2011; Deng et al., 2023; Dwi Saputra & Joniko,
n.d.). GDP is also considered one of the most
important indicators of economic performance
because it is one of the country's primary sources of
national income, so we will focus on GDP as an
indicator of economic growth Iraq’s GDP can be said to
be different from the rest of the world, especially
those that are similar in terms of growth in available
resources
and
capacities.
Due
to
Iraq's
circumstances during the duration of the study, have
hurt the overall economic activity, combined with the
widespread financial and administrative corruption
in some of the joints of the State, which has worked
differently in GDP compared to other countries
(Awad Et al., 2021; Ahmad et al., 2024; Al-Filali et al.,
2023; Baajike et al., 2022; Deng et al., 2023; Lian,
2024; Luukkanen et al., 2019; Soana, 2024; Yu et al.,
2023b).
To complement the foregoing, Iraq's gross domestic
product (GDP) gives a close picture of the economic
reality and the course of its development. When
reference is made to Table 1, the GDP has seen an
upward trend during the first years in the value of
GDP, which has risen from (53235358.7) million
dinars in 2004 to (157026061.6) million dinars in
2008, owing to the end of economic sanctions and the
economic blockade imposed on Iraq by the Coalition
States before 2003. (Yu et al., 2023b; Zhang & Ren,
2011)This has led to increased trade openness to the
outside world, which has contributed to an increase
in oil exports, thus increasing Iraq's revenues from
this commodity, because oil exports occupy the lion's
share in the composition of GDP, and then the GDP
Awad et al / Analysis of the relationship between

has fallen to reach (130643200.4) million dinars in
2009 owing to the decrease due to the global
financial crisis, which re- reduced revenues from
this sector owing to low oil prices due to low
demand globally (Ali, 2023).

independent variable has been identified by some
indicators of sustainable development (average per
capita GDP, health expenditure, and education
expenditure), and the dependent variable of the GDP
index. As in table 3:

Gross domestic product (GDP) data for the period
2010-2013 showed a marked rise as a result of
increased exports of the oil sector, owing to an
increase in oil prices which contributed
significantly to an increase in the sector's revenues,
which contributed to an increase in GDP, while in
2015 it declined to reach (194680971.8) million
dinars, as a result of the security conditions
experienced in Iraq and the accompanying crisis in
the decline of oil prices globally. (Agu et al., 2022;
Encinas-Ferrer & Villegas-Zermeño, 2015b) This led
to a decline in the revenues of this sector, which is
dependent on the composition of GDP, which
affected the decline in GDP during that period, and
then took the GDP up until 2019. (276117000.0)
million dinars as a result of the relative
improvement in the security situation during that
period and subsequently decreased due to the crisis
(COVID-19) and the interruption of most life
activities, which reduced the oil sector's exports,
thereby decreasing revenues and hence the decline
of GDP. (Akgül et al., 2022; Marczell et al., 2023;
Mulder et al., 2021) From this vision, it can be said
that the growth rates witnessed in the Iraqi
economy were associated with the abundance of oil
revenues, without these rates being reflected in
positive changes in the environment of the Iraqi
economy. The Iraqi economy is dependent on the
exports of one sector, the oil sector, and thus any
circumstance the country is experiencing will be
reflected in the revenues of that sector, which in
turn will be reflected in the country's economic
growth rates.

Results of the stabilization test of study variables After
the DAL description of the model is done, we will test
the stability of the study variables using the (Eviews10)
program to see whether the variables are stable or
unstable, i.e. do they contain the root of the unit, with
the rank of integration?

3.2.2. The reality of some of Iraq’s sustainable
development indicators after 2004
Average per capita GDP This indicator is an
important economic indicator that expresses
development, The economic significance of this
index is highlighted by the fact that it reflects
economic growth rates and measures over-output
volume. (Esmaeili et al., 2023; Oshakbayev et al.,
2022; Shkolnikov et al., 2019) Iraq’s average per
capita GDP can be explained by reference to Table 2,
which shows that the average per capita has seen
an upward trend in the early years. From (1961,539)
dinars in 2004 to (5135,269) dinars in (2008).

3.2.3. Analysis of the relationship between Iraq’s
sustainable development indicators and
economic growth for the period (20042020)
Study variables and functional description To test the
study’s hypotheses and achieve its objectives, the

Detecting the stability of time chains has become very
important in estimating standard models to get rid of
the problem of false regression when estimating. In
addition, stable time chains can get rid of the shocks
they encounter and then return to long-term balance,
so we will use unit root tests to ensure the stability of
time chains. These tests are ADF and PP.
The relationship between certain indicators of
sustainable development and Iraq's economic growth
for the period (2004-2020) Preliminary assessment of
the ARDL model The results of the appropriate (ARDL)
model is ARDL (2,0,5,2), to indicate the relationship
between the study variables in Iraq, has been done
according to the standard (AIC) This model was among
the best (20) model to give it the low- est value to this
standard as it was automatically identified through the
program (Eviews) The results of the statistical tests
shown in the above table indicate that they are moral
and of quality for the estimated model.(Agu et al., 2022;
Konchitchki & Patatoukas, 2014; Marczell et al., 2023;
Mulder et al., 2021)
The value of the determination coefficient (R2) has also
been shown to be (99%) giving interpretive power to
the model, i.e. independent variables explain changes
in the dependent variable by (99%) and the remaining
ratio of (1%) is due to the influence of other variables
not included in the model, and the value (DurbinWatson statistic) was about (1.902835). This value
indicates that the model is devoid of the problem of
self-association.
Results of the boundary test for joint integration To
test the long-term balanced relationship (common
integration) between the dependent variable of
(average per capita GDP) and the independent
variables of (some
sustainable
development
indicators), the boundary test (Bounds Test) must be
conducted taking into account the following points:
Compare the value of the count (F) calculated with its
tabular value and within critical limits, There is a
minimum (LCB: Lower Critical Bound explains
whether the thoughtful variables are integrated from
Grade (I0) and higher limit (UCB: Upper Critical Bound
explains whether the variables are (I1)-class
integrated. If the value of (F) is exceeded by the upper
limit (UCB), we reject the null hypothesis and accept
the alternative hypothesis that there is a common
complementarity.
When there is a common integration between
variables, the formula is estimated in the long term by

REVENUE JOURNAL: MANAGEMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP 1(1): 25-32

29

the (Akaike) standard. To identify short-term
movements according to the specifications of the
ARDL, the error correction model (ECM) is used.
The results of the boundary tests between some of
Iraq’s indicators of sustainable diminishment and
economic growth shown in Table 7 above show that
the value of (F- statistic) calculated is about 4.811772,
which is greater than the minimum and highest
calendar value at a level below (1%) This means
rejecting the hypothesis of nowhere and accepting
the alternative hypothesis indicating a common
integration relationship, i.e. a long-term balance
between independent variables and dependent
variables. This requires an assessment of the
response and the error correction factor.
Long-term and short-term response assessment
results After the boundary tests (joint integration) we
found
a
long-term
balance
between
the
interpretative variables and the dependent variable,
and here the short- and long-term capabilities of
the estimated model parameters and the error
correction parameter should be obtained. (ECM) The
results of the long-term and short-term response
assessment according to the (ARDL) model are
shown in table (8). The relationship between some of
Iraq’s indicators of sustainable development and
economic growth is as follows:
The error correction parameter indicates a long-term
balance between some indicators of sustainable
development and economic growth in Iraq for the
period 2004- 2020, because the error correction
parameter is negative and moral at a lower level (1%),
as the parameter indicates a return to balance within
(0.002) of time.
Long-term response results show a weak expenditure
impact between education expenditure and economic
growth because the volume of expenditure on education
was not at the required level during the school period.
Long-term response results show a strong and moral
exponential impact at a level below (1%) between
average GDP per capita and economic growth.
Long-term response results show a strong and moral
exponential impact at a level below (1%) between
health spending and economic growth.

4. CONCLUSION

The results of the research indicate a long-term
balance between certain indicators of sustainable
development and economic growth in Iraq during the
duration of the study. This demonstrates the research
hypothesis,
Many
economic,
social,
and
environmental indicators that show low growth rates
excluding per capita GDP decreased during the
duration of the study, Through the implementation of
sustainable development indicators in Iraq, Iraq can
achieve sustainable development by expanding
welfare
investments
such
as
those
from
infrastructure, education, and health, The results of

30

the study showed a long- term balance between some
indicators of sustainable development and economic
growth in Iraq during the duration of the study because
the wrong correction parameter is negative and moral
at a lower level (1%). The parameter indicates a return
to balance during (0.002) of time, i.e., changes in
sustainable development indicators lead to changes in
economic development indicators.

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